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First Y2K, Now This
By Michelle Owens

Well, John Kerry has finally chosen a running mate, The Olympic torch is getting closer to Athens and McDonald’s® is gearing up to sell another 6.4 gazillion Big Macs®. So what do any of these have to do with the price of rice in China, you might ask? The “quadrennial effect” is what. “Huh,” you say? My sentiments, exactly. I initially thought this was a cheap marketing ploy to sell more ads, but it turns out to be a full-blown, legitimate phenomenon.

Last December, Madison Avenue advertising agencies began placing their bets for 2004 ad revenue—and it was good, very good, in fact. Senior vice president and forecasting director at Universal McCann in New York Robert J. Coen predicted in December 2003 that combined national and local ad spending in the United States would grow 6.9 percent in 2004 over the previous year. Nearly 7 percent growth is pretty optimistic for an economy barely peeking its head out of a recession.

What Madison Avenue was banking on is the so-called “quadrennial effect.” This is the windfall that comes around every four years when the advertising world experiences a noticeable spike in revenue as a result of the Olympic Games and the presidential election.

We are smack in the middle of the year, so are the numbers coming in according to plan? You bet. Last week, Coen increased his forecast from 6.9 to 7.3 percent for 2004. That would be the largest American ad spending since 2000, which was, coincidentally, a “quadrennial” year. According to Nielsen Media Ratings (NMR), cable television advertising is already up 16 percent. Television network spending is just beginning to surface (this is the time of year when broadcast and cable networks begin to solicit commitments for the upcoming fall season) but the effect seems to be in place there, too. The Television Bureau of Advertising (TVB) notes a whopping 10.4 percent increase. All of this, and the Olympic Games don’t begin until mid-August, and the presidential race won’t really heat up for a couple more months.

There were some early reports that security threats in Athens would interfere with projected advertising. Apparently, threats have not stopped The Olympic Partner (TOP) sponsors such as Coca-Cola®, McDonald’s or Visa® from shelling out the big bucks. McDonald’s is using the Olympic tie-in as a perfect opportunity to market its new Go Active! campaign. McDonald’s has plans to launch an undisclosed new menu item during the games and even host a Go Active! Day.

Everyone is trying to capitalize on the Summer Games. Speedo® says that it will use the event as a worldwide showcase for its new FS II swimsuit, which most of the swimmers will be sporting in competition. Xerox®, a TOP sponsor since 1964, sent a team to Athens to begin prep-work shortly after the Salt Lake Games ended. You might even recall the Visa Olympic-themed Super Bowl commercial. They were one of the first major sponsors to tie in to the Games.

The 2004 presidential election seems to be right on track, as well. Despite the passage of “McCain-Feingold” and other campaign finance reforms, this election season should report historic levels of television advertising. Expect to see more 30- and 60-second political ads during your favorite reality show this fall rather than svelte models peddling razors. The Federal Election Commission says that election spending this year could reach $1.5 billion.

The “quadrennial effect” is obviously having an influence this year on Madison Avenue Christmas bonuses, but I think there is more to it than a strong American desire to check out the “poll” vaulting competition. The sudden abundance of American advertising dollars is a strong sign of the U.S. economy rebounding, but it is also indicative of an ever-increasing advertising presence in American life.

The bottom line—the squeaky wheel gets the grease. If your company doesn’t have a constant visual presence in the marketplace, it is certain to get lost amidst all the competition willing to advertise. Next month, when you’re watching Yao Ming slam-dunk, which hamburger joint are you going to crave? I’m putting my money on the Golden Arches®.

E-mail the author: Michelle Owens

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